The Makkah Defence Pact: Strategic Implications for the Region

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (MJDA), signed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, representing Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan indicates that these states have entered into a strategic defensive pact that formalizes a key geopolitical realignment as a result of Israel’s ongoing violent agendas and the tensions with Iran, resulting in countries of the Middle East like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, being caught in the crossfire. The pact signed on 7th August 2026, already referred to as one of the most consequential security arrangements to emerge from the Muslim world in the current generation, symbolizes that an attack on one of these states will be taken as an attack on all three of the states.

The origin of this pact is the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in September 2025. This pact is an extension of the previous agreement, adding Turkey to the equation and bringing NATO-trained conventional forces and defence-industrial capacity to Pakistan’s nuclear-armed military and Saudi Arabia’s financial weight, forming a strong framework to safeguard against regional disruptions. That earlier pact itself followed Israel's strike on Hamas negotiators in Doha, Qatar, an attack that put American protection of Gulf states in serious doubt. Apart from these, the 2025 12-Day War with Iran and 2026 US-Israel campaign, both violent initiatives by Israel, in less than a year, have acted as the spark for this refined pact, as the Israel-led war created a situation, with Iran firing over 7000 missiles and drones at Gulf States and closing the Strait of Hormuz, inflicting heavy losses on regional and global economies alike.

This pact is also referred to as a “Muslim NATO”, with the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan describing the commitment as technically the same as NATO’s Article 5, where allies would decide the degree and form of assistance for each other’s affairs through consultation. Prior efforts of the US to erect a Middle Eastern alliance comprising its partners have failed, but this regional cooperation sheds light on growing regional anxieties and the protection of the individual states. The pact, being concluded in Islam’s holiest city of Makkah, brings together Pakistan, a nuclear power, Saudi Arabia, a financial and energy giant, and Turkey, NATO’s second-largest military and defence-industrial powerhouse.

The pact does not involve Egypt yet due to balancing its $1.3 billion in annual US military aid and the 1979 peace treaty with Israel; however, Cairo is a genuine potential candidate, with latest developments indicating Egypt is open to being a signatory. On the other hand, Iran has said it has received no formal invitation to join the pact. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated that Tehran “sees no reason to be concerned” and suggested that countries have concluded they cannot rely on America’s claim of providing security. On the other hand, Israel is suspicious of this agreement, and their anxieties were likely inflamed by Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif’s remark, as this pact signifies that the “Islamic world must unite to confront the common threat posed by Israel”.

The effectiveness of this pact will be subject to one important variable, which is whether it will survive after contact with an actual crisis. According to many historical precedents, such as the 1950 Arab Defense League treaty and the 2000 GCC cooperation, it is clear that these pacts tend to mostly function as political signaling rather than genuine military commitment.

In conclusion, the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement is a positive initiative taken by these three partner states to form a strategic defensive structure for future regional initiatives, and to not leave matters in the hands of Washington anymore. This mainly allows Saudi Arabia to gain a solid indigenous defence capacity through Pakistan and Turkey, being free of the strict Washington terms placed on the kingdom regarding offensive weapon sales, while Turkey stands as the biggest beneficiary from this initiative through expanded exports and co-production deals backed by Saudi support. Pakistan also stands to gain collective security and access to defence technology, especially Turkey’s drone and military aid. The alliance faces multiple tests ahead, most significantly the fact that Riyadh has mainly been focusing on renewed hostilities with Iran while Turkey has viewed Israel as the more pressing danger. The two states of Saudi Arabia and Turkey also will need to leave behind their own rivalry for regional dominance for this pact. The success or failure of this agreement will be determined when the next crisis shakes the region and when the states face the option of joint action or unilateral retreat. Only then will we truly understand the effectiveness and the result of whether this is just one more agreement or a significant, unavoidable force of the trinity of the Islamic states in determining the outcomes of the region’s future developments.

Opinion pieces reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily an institutional position of PIVRA.