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Data & Policy Center / Environment & Climate

Living With a Warmer, More Volatile Pakistan

Data & Policy Center · Environment & Climate
LAUNCHED 14 AUG 2026 · TRACKED AND EXPANDED CONTINUOUSLY
Clean electricity generation
53.1%
▲ hydel, nuclear & renewable share, Jul–Mar FY2025–26
2025 national temperature
+1.09°C
above the 1961–1990 average · 2nd warmest year in 65 years
2025 flood damages
Rs 822B
≈ US$2.9B · over 1,039 fatalities
People affected by 2025 floods
6.5M
across 70 districts
Air quality (PM2.5)
67.3 µg/m³
world's most polluted country, 2025 · 13× the WHO guideline
Green Pakistan Programme
2.3B plants
▲ ≈0.7 million hectares planted, by Mar 2026
The Trend Lines

Electricity generation mix, Jul–Mar FY2025–26

% of total generation, 92,835 GWh
Hydel, nuclear, and renewable sources combined now account for 53.1% of generation. Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2025–26, Chapter 14.

Air pollution exposure, 2011–2023

Mean annual PM2.5, µg/m³
The WHO annual guideline is 5 µg/m³; Pakistan has never come close in over a decade of data. Source: World Bank Open Data.
Policy Landscape

Commitments: Pakistan's updated climate pledge (NDC 3.0)

Pakistan submitted an updated Nationally Determined Contribution in September 2025, committing to cut projected 2035 greenhouse gas emissions by 50% against a business-as-usual baseline of 2,559 MtCO₂e, 17 percentage points through Pakistan's own resources and policy and the remaining 33 points conditional on international climate finance. The same pledge targets clean sources reaching roughly 62–69% of installed electricity capacity by 2035, and estimates the total investment needed through 2035 at US$565.7 billion.

National growth plan: Uraan Pakistan's Environment pillar

Environment and climate resilience is one of the five priority pillars in Uraan Pakistan, the federal government's 2024–29 National Economic Transformation Plan tracked on PIVRA's Economy & Livelihoods page, placing climate targets under the same quarterly national KPI reviews as export growth and energy reform rather than treating them as a separate track.

Afforestation: the Green Pakistan Programme

The federal government's main reforestation vehicle, the Green Pakistan Programme, reports having raised, regenerated, or distributed roughly 2.3 billion plants across about 0.7 million hectares as of March 2026, the government's primary response to the forest and tree-cover loss driving several of the challenges below.

Where the Gaps Are

Disasters are getting more frequent, not just more severe

The 2025 floods alone caused Rs 822 billion in damage and affected 6.5 million people across 70 districts, in a year that was also the second-warmest on record in 65 years. This is climate volatility, not a one-off event, and it keeps recurring on a multi-year cycle rather than a generational one.

Air pollution is a public health crisis hiding in plain sight

Pakistan was ranked the world's most polluted country in 2025, with average PM2.5 levels 13 times the WHO guideline. World Bank data shows this has stayed roughly flat, never once approaching the guideline, for over a decade, even as the electricity mix has gotten cleaner.

Two-thirds of the climate pledge depends on money that isn't secured

Of Pakistan's 50-percentage-point NDC 3.0 emissions target, 33 points, roughly two-thirds of the total ambition, are explicitly conditional on international climate finance that has not yet been committed. Delivery of the headline target depends on money the country does not currently have.

From PIVRA's Own Research
Discussion Paper · DP-2026-02

Pakistan's First Homegrown ESG Index: Ambitious Architecture, Unfinished Foundations

Sobia Arooj, Climate Policy & Sustainable Development Researcher

Assesses the Pakistan Stock Exchange's new homegrown ESG benchmark index, its methodology, and the self-reported disclosure gap that will decide whether it can be trusted as regulation begins to depend on it, the same measurement and accountability question that shadows Pakistan's climate pledges.

Read the full paper →